Olivia Coustance -
The question of New Caledonia’s independence has sparked much debate following the signing of the Nouméa agreement in 1998. This agreement granted a special status to New Caledonia, which whilst remaining under the category of an overseas French territory, was promised an increase in political power.
Since the Nouméa accords, many independence referendums have taken place but none have been successful. The most recent of these happened in 2021, in the midst of a wave of Covid-19. This referendum took place with much contestation, notably with Kanak independence advocates deeming the negative outcome of this referendum illegitimate, on the grounds of insufficient Kanak participation in this referendum. Notably the Kanak people constituted 60% of New Caledonia’s Covid-19 death rate, which had an especially huge impact on their electoral participation rates as the process of mourning in Kanak culture includes a period of withdrawal from all civil and political activities. Thus many Kanak people, due to cultural considerations, couldn’t take part in determining their island’s status. This context advocates for the holding of a new referendum, based on the hypothesis that a higher Kanak voter turnout could have meant a positive outcome.
This potential independence would be crucial for the geopolitical balance of the area, with the island's location in the middle of a critical international zone: the indopacific. Therefore the prospect of independence is of security interest for many states.
In the case of independence, the former French overseas territory’s potential to develop strong diplomatic ties with China, and eventually become a military outpost for China should be considered. Notably in recent years, Beijing has been expanding its reach in the strategically located pacific islands, by creating what pacific geopolitical specialist Bastien Vandendyck dubs a “pearl necklace” around the pacific islands. He highlights the high stakes of New Caledonia’s independence in the following way : "if the French safeguard disappears, all elements would be in place for China to establish itself permanently in New Caledonia". Ties already exist between Beijing and Nouméa, as Beijing is New Caledonia’s single largest client in Nouméa’s notoriously lucrative nickel market; however in the case of New Caledonia’s independence, the relationship between the two entities would not only be transactional, but would become diplomatic and have great geopolitical implications. For instance, a Chinese military outpost in an independent New Caledonia could prove a great threat to Australia, especially in the context of growing Australian defiance to Xi’s China.
Indeed, the growing geopolitical tensions between the US and China and involving Australia find their place in the debate of New Caledonia’s independence. New Caledonia’s possible fate in the Chinese sphere of influence, was brandished as an argument by Scott Morrison as he justified his scrapping of the Franco-Australian submarine purchase agreement for AUKUS. In essence, he stated that Paris is insufficiently protecting New Caledonia from Chinese influence, thus causing sizeable concern to Canberra.
As the debate on New Caledonia’s independence continues, the Pacific islands’ presence in US-China tensions increases, thus rendering the Southern Pacific a potential battlefield between world powers in the geopolitical conjuncture of tomorrow.
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